来源：金沙国际唯一官网 发布时间：2020-07-20 点击数：303
By Emma Cosgrove 2020 07-13
"敏捷性确实胜过预测，"马克·恩格尔说。在一天结束的时候，我们在敏捷性上花费的每一美元，在预测或情景规划上花费的每一美元，其回报率可能都提高了 10 倍。
这一理论的第一个考验是在大流行的早期，当时对联合利华更基本产品（如清洁用品）的需求在某些情况下增长了600%。为了交付产品，公司转换了生产线，并将生产的总 SKU 数量减少了 65%。
强调预测的灵活性意味着缩短规划周期 – 公司将规划周期从 13 周缩短到 4 周。每周计划会议变成了每日会议。由于消费者支出和生产能力偏离历史趋势，现有的需求基线甚至人工智能项目不再适用。
马克·恩格尔描述的敏捷性是由已经在进行中的数字化转型工作——由于大流行而加速的工作——而成为可能。该公司正努力通过 200 亿台设备（包括一些支持物联网的设备）连接其供应链，实现流程自动化，并利用所收集的数据。
The coronavirus pandemic has presented Unilever with a series of stress tests, according to Chief Supply Chain Officer Marc Engel.
National lockdowns have affected the company's global supply chain at every level from production to distribution. Absenteeism in factories and a shortage of delivery drivers added to the stress. Factor in demand swinging away from commercial customers to consumer products and the ability to see what was coming next became secondary to making decisions in the moment, Engel told the Reuters Transform Europe virtual conference Wednesday.
"Agility does trump forecast[ing]," the CSCO said. "At the end of the day, every dollar we spent on agility has probably got a 10x return on every dollar spent on forecasting or scenario planning."
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The first test of this theory came early in the pandemic when demand for Unilever's more essential products, such as cleaning supplies, shot up 600% in some cases. To deliver, the company converted production lines and reduced the number of total SKUs it produced by 65%.
"A much simpler portfolio was required in order to make sure that we keep ourselves running," Engel said.
An emphasis on agility over forecasting meant shortening planning cycles — the company reduced its planning horizon from 13 weeks to four. The weekly planning meeting became a daily meeting. Existing demand baselines and even artificial intelligence programs no longer applied as consumer spending and production capacity strayed farther from historical trends.
The CSCO drew a firm distinction between agility and resilience in recent months.
"Resilience is more around sourcing," Engel said. "Where do you get your products from? How many markets do you source from? But agility is really about how well are you equipped to respond to uncertainties." And it's that skill that the company will use to decide when to bring back the SKUs it put on hold.
The agility Engel described was made possible by digital transformation work already in-progress — work that accelerated as a result of the pandemic. The company is working toward connecting it's supply chain via 20 billion devices (including some that are internet of things-enabled), automating processes and leveraging the data collected.
"You know the digital transformation has been accelerated no-end through [COVID-19] and you do need an end-to-end digital transformation strategy to do all of this — also on the climate side," Engel said.
The same digital tools and agility that are keeping Unilever's supply chain going through coronavirus lockdowns will allow the company to keep its sustainability initiatives on track, the CSCO said. This was a sentiment echoed by several other supply chain professionals at the event who updated supplier governance systems to monitor production capability on top of human rights and sustainability standards.
Unilever has committed to reducing emissions from its own operations to net-zero by 2030 from a 2015 baseline and from its products, taking into account their entire life cycle, by 50% by 2030 from a 2010 baseline. The commitments are still in place, in fact the company released further detail on how it will bring suppliers in on these goals as well last month. But, the company wasn't always so sure sustainability ambitions could hold through the pandemic.
"We had a real deep discussion saying do we pause or do we accelerate?" Engel said. "And we said this is a time to accelerate."
The decrease in overall emissions during the early months of global economic shutdowns reminded Engel and the company that it is possible to affect climate change in a big way.
"While the world's dealing with the devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and it's grappling with serious issues of inequality, we cannot let ourselves forget that the climate crisis is still a threat to all of us," Engel said.